Rubin Report - The Pulse of the NYC Development / Issue No. 28 - March 2025
Rubin Isak
Just Sold: 8 W 45th Street NYC
Address: 8 W 45th Street, NY NY 10036
Neighborhood: Midtown
Asset Class: Vacant Land
Location: South Side of 45th St bet 5th Ave and 6th Ave
Lot Dimensions: 92' x 100.5'
Lot SF: 9,241 SF
Zoning District: C6-4.5/MiD
ZFA: 110,892 ZFA
Sale Date: 3/17/2025
Sale Price: $38,500,000
Note: Development Site Advisors was the sole broker in this transaction representing both seller and buyer. The transaction closed in a true all-cash transaction in less then 60 days.
7 NB Filings: Manhattan & Queens
554 W 46th Street aka 616 11th Avenue, Hells Kitchen MN
Architect: S. Wieder Architect P.C.
Developer: Chess Builders LLC
Lot Area: 27,019 SF
Lot Width: 293 FT
Zoning: R8A, C2-5
ZFA: 157,209 ZFA
Filing: Plans filed to build a 14-Story, 136 foot tall, Building with 59 Dwelling Units.
Paid $211/ZFA in March 2024
Construction Loan for $58,124,667 from Valley National Bank.
23-57 31st Street, Astoria QN
Architect: Anthony Cucich Architect
Developer: 2468 LLC
Lot Area: 2,250 SF
Lot Width: 25 FT
Zoning: C4-3
ZFA: 7,607 ZFA
Filing: Plans filed to build a 6-Story, 70 foot tall, Building with 10 Dwelling Units and a 640sf ground floor commercial space.
Paid $230/ZFA in February 2024
25-40 30th Drive, Astoria QN
Architect: ARC Architecture + Design Studio
Developer: Clydesdale Development
Lot Area: 2,176 SF
Lot Width: 21.74 FT
Zoning: R6A
ZFA: 6,526 ZFA
Filing: Plans filed to build a 4-Story, 53 foot tall, Building with 8 Dwelling Units.
Paid $245/ZFA in July 2024
11-37 44th Drive, LIC QN
Architect: Z Architecture PLLC (photo credit)
Developer: 44LIC Development SP LLC
Lot Area: 19,984 SF
Lot Width: 200 FT
Zoning: M1-4/R7A
ZFA: 73,734 ZFA
Filing: Plans filed to build a 7-Story, 74 foot tall, Building with 102 Dwelling Units and 3,000 SF of ground floor commercial space.
Paid $374/ZFA in December 2024
25-08 43rd Avenue aka 43-05 Crescent Street, LIC QN
Architect: INOA Architecture (photo credit)
Developer: Central Realty LIC
Lot Area: 5,371 SF
Lot Width: 103 FT
Zoning: M1-5/R7-3
ZFA: 26,846 ZFA
Filing: Plans filed to build a 9-Story, 119 foot tall, Building with 39 Dwelling Units.
Paid $372/ZFA in March 2023
Construction Loan for $18,106,866 from Ponce Bank.
76-14 & 76-16 113th Street, Forest Hills QN
Developer: Frank Bahar Real Estate Corp
Lot Area: 3,880 SF
Lot Width: 39.2 FT
Zoning: R6
ZFA: 8,478 ZFA
Filing: Plans filed to build Two (2) 4-Story, 55 foot tall, 6-Family Buildings. Original Lot was split into two 19.62, 1,940sf lots.
Paid $236/ZFA in July 2024
78-29 Austin Street, Forest Hills QN
Architect: ZPROEKT Architecture (photo credit)
Developer: RYBAK Development
Lot Area: 65,527 SF
Lot Width: 332 FT
Zoning: R6
ZFA: 148,429 ZFA
Filing: Updated Plans filed for an ongoing project to build a 7-Story, 70 foot tall Building with 98 Dwelling Units. (As part of the project, RYBAK also filed plans to construct an additional 40,964 SF for a 2-Story Community Facility Building)
Paid $141/Resi ZFA in June 2022
Construction Loan for $46,153,041 from Valley National Bank
Financial Market Snapshot:
- Federal Prime Rate: 7.5%
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.40%
- United States Effective Federal Funds Rate: 4.33%
- United States Annual Inflation Rate: 2.82%
- US 1-Year Treasury Rate: 4.003%
- US 2-Year Treasury Rate: 3.877%
- US 3-Year Treasury Rate: 3.878%
- US 5-Year Treasury Rate: 3.986%
- US 7-Year Treasury Rate: 4.133%
- US 10-Year Treasury Rate: 4.304%
- Treasury Bill Auction Rates:
- 6-Week Term: 4.265%
- 13-Week Term: 4.175%
- 26-Week Term: 4.000%
- US Bonds:
- 20-Year Bond: 4.781%
- 30-Year Bond: 4.749%
- Mortgage Rates:
- 30-Year Fixed Rate: 6.90%
- 15-Year Fixed Rate: 6.24%
- 5-Year ARM: 6.33%
- Ground Up Construction Rates: 8.65%+
- Hard Money Lending Rates: 11%+
Developer Dirt
Rumblings, Concerns & Real Talk from NYC Developers
The street-level truth from the city’s real developers. This month: pressure’s rising—costs, tariff chaos, and creeping red tape.
CONSTRUCTION COSTS & TARIFFS
“The uncertainty is paralyzing.”
The current tariffs are creating a storm of uncertainty for developers, driving up material costs and causing significant disruptions across the board. “As soon as the tariffs were announced, we saw material prices jump by 10 to 20 percent overnight,” says one developer. “If the higher tariffs on China goes through, we’re probably also looking at supply chain chaos.” Some suppliers are also pausing on even pricing jobs until the cloud clears.
COMPLIANCE + RED TAPE
Local Law 147 and the Cost of Safety.
A growing concern from small developers: Local Law 147, which took effect in December 2024, now requires a Site Safety Manager (SSM) for buildings as small as 7 stories or 75 feet—doubling safety personnel requirements, in addition to a Construction Superintendent. This requirement used to be for 10-Story buildings and above.
For smaller projects, the $250,000+ yearly cost, over a 2 to 3 year construction period, of an SSM is pushing many developers to rethink or even abandon projects. As one developer of smaller 10 to 20 unit projects put it to me:
"The cost of this mandate is unsustainable for small projects. It’s a dealbreaker for me. What was once a feasible project is now financially impossible."
The Solution? Developers are calling for a minimum buildable area threshold, say 50,000sf+ to make these small projects financially viable again.
TARIFFS SHAKING DEAL CONFIDENCE
In the wake of the new tariffs, one developer has pulled back on an offer citing the ongoing uncertainty. “I need to take a step back and assess the situation before diving back in…” This pause reflects the broader sentiment across the industry, where many are hitting the brakes as they try to make sense of the shifting market dynamics brought on by rising costs and trade disruptions.
OPTIMISM FROM THE FIELD
Despite the red tape and rising costs, I’ve had a handful of developers reach out in the last two weeks looking for big sites: 100,000+ square feet for rental, and even large-scale condo development. One seasoned developer told me: “Bring me a 250,000 to 400,000 square foot site in luxury neighborhoods, we’re ready.”
That kind of appetite tells you everything. Rents and condo prices are still at all-time highs, and the most forward-thinking players are betting on it. The optimism is out there.
RUBIN’S TAKE
The beauty, and the risk, of development is time. You buy land today betting on a better market 2–3 years from now. That takes optimism, especially in NYC. But the truth is unless the DOB shifts to a truly pro-development posture post–City of Yes and 485-x, we won’t build nearly the amount of housing we need. Time and red tape becomes a line item on the risk side of every proforma. If the powers-that-be truly want to see tons of new housing, they have to do better.