Welcome to Issue Number 30 of The Rubin Report: The Pulse of the NYC Development Market. This is where to come every month to learn about everything development, zoning & policy across the 5 boroughs.

It has been a HOT and interesting start to this summer.

• We just sold a nearly 145k ZFA development site in the Kingsbridge neighborhood of The Bronx.
• We just sold Off-Site Inclusionary Housing (OSIH) Air Rights in Manhattan’s Community District 5.
• The Atlantic Avenue Mixed-Use Plan was ADOPTED by the City Council
• Public review for the Jamaica Neighborhood Plan is now underway
• Public review for the OneLIC Neighborhood Plan is now underway
• The City Planning Commission approved the Midtown South Mixed-Use Plan (MSMX)
• The public engagement phase of the “Manhattan Plan,” a proposal to add 100,000 new homes to Manhattan over the next 10 Years, has started
• The White Plains Road Neighborhood Plan in The Bronx has been introduced

Also In This Issue:

• New York at a Crossroads: Rubin’s Take on the Mayoral Election (A socialist mayor?)
• Just Sold Exclusively: An $11,500,000 development site in The Bronx
• Today’s Financial Market Snapshot

Rubin’s Perspective on the NYC Mayor’s Race

The Democratic mayoral primary just delivered a stunning result: Socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani came out on top. He’ll now face off against incumbent Mayor Eric Adams in what may be the most consequential election New York City has seen in a generation.

I am a firm believer that when people talk, we should listen closely and believe what they say.

In one of Zohrans posts on the social media platform “X”, (where part of his title is “Running for Mayor to freeze the rent” & “Democratic Socialist”.) he wrote:

“We’ll have to wait to see if our lead holds. But to be leading even amidst a global pandemic makes it clear: another world really is possible. Together, we can tax the rich, heal the sick, house the poor, defund the police & build a socialist New York. Solidarity forever.”

Here are more alarming excerpts from Mamdani’s X account and public interviews, clearly illustrating his beliefs, agenda, and values:

-”We need to elect a socialist city council to defund the NYPD”

-”Together, we’re going to freeze the rent”

-”As Mayor, I will triple New York City’s production of permanently affordable, union-built, rent-stabilized homes, constructing 200,000 new units over the next decade”

-”We can’t rely exclusively on zoning changes to address the dire lack of housing. Our plan puts public investment first”

-”Ever wonder what developers mean when they promise to put affordable unit in luxury buildings? Here’s an application for some new “affordable” units in Astoria. Only $75k+/yearly need apply. Plus, the developer gets a tax break. This is a scam. We need more free social housing.”

-”..crooked landlord lawyers & rich developers.”

-”What would a world where housing wasn't a commodity bought & sold for profit look like?

What would it mean to live in a world with a “HomesGuarantee”, where housing was a human right? Building that world will be the fight of our lives. But we believe that world is possible.”

-”Yes, a “HomesGuarantee” means social housing & universal rent control.”

-”Instead of letting private developers decide what kind of housing gets built & for whom, we can tax the rich to build high-quality social housing that working people actually need.

And we can move units off the market & turn them over to the people who actually live in them.”

-”Big Real Estate controls New York politics - and it’s politicians. To build this world, we’ll need a new set of leaders who aren’t beholden to the developers & landlords who sign their campaign checks.”

-”Israel is committing a genocide”

-”Free, Free Palestine! Free, Free, Free Palestine!”

-”Our mayor has been indicted by the Feds on corruption charges, yet we also know that a far greater criminal is in our city today. That is the Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu.”

-”War criminals are not welcome in our city. Israel’s genocide and now indiscriminate bombing of Lebanon - and our funding of such crimes - must immediately end.”

-”This Ramadan feels different from past years: because as we break our fast each night, 1.1 million Palestinians are being starved by Israel - with full US support.”

-”Every single one of my constituents that has written to me about Palestine has supported my call for Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions on Israel. Every single one. The tide is turning. The fight for justice is here. The moment is now.”

-Q. Would a Mayor Mamdani welcome Prime Minister Netanyahu to NYC?

A. “No. As Mayor, NYC would ARREST Benjamin Netanyahu.”

-”It’s official: we won. I’m going to Albany to fight to tax the rich, heal the sick, house the poor & build a socialist New York. But I can’t do it alone. To win socialism, we’ll need a mass movement of the multiracial working class as well.”

-”If you’re one of the more than two million New Yorkers in rent-stabilized apartments, I will freeze your rent.”

-”We need to stop letting landlords & developers control New York. We need a “HomesGuarantee” We believe in housing for all. Universal, statewide rent control. End tax breaks for rich developers. High quality social housing for all.”

-”When asked about my top priority I said: Cancel rent & mortgage. Pass good cause to set up statewide rent control. Decomodify housing. The fight is just beginning!”

-”Here’s to less sacrifice, and more socialism!“

To be clear: this isn’t a misquote or spin. These are his words. This is his vision. These are his values.

My own take? I don’t believe socialism works. The best way to solve our housing crisis is through housing built by private developers. That means giving private developers the tools to build: proper zoning changes, smart tax abatements, and policies that don’t force prohibitively high union labor costs on every project. It’s about safety, too. We can’t afford to “defund the NYPD”. Safe streets are the foundation of a functioning city.

In 1980, my parents fled the former Soviet Republic of Uzbekistan, a socialist state, escaping antisemitism and a system that punished ambition. They immigrated to New York City and settled in Brighton Beach, Brooklyn, where I was born, then on to Queens where I was raised. Where my parents came from, dreams were regulated, risk was punished, and success was suspect. It’s hard to understand why anyone would willingly pursue a system that’s failed so many, so often.

As someone who today works with landowners, developers, lenders, and builders every single day, I see firsthand what it takes to get housing built in New York City. It’s hard. It’s expensive. And it doesn’t happen by magic, or by ideology. It happens through smart policy, strong leadership, and people willing to take risk and put capital to work.

All of Mr. Mamdani’s housing proposals would stifle development. They would drive private capital out of the city, stall new construction, and ultimately push rents even higher, just like the 2019 rent laws he championed. Defunding the police won’t make our streets safer; it will make the city more dangerous for everyone, including socialists. And calling for the arrest of the Prime Minister of one of America’s greatest allies isn’t just reckless, it places him firmly on the wrong side of history.

And here’s another simple truth: money doesn’t have feelings. It doesn’t care about slogans or speeches. It goes where it’s welcome, and where it can earn more of itself. If New York City goes down a hard socialist path, demonizing private investment, then capital will move elsewhere, to parts of Florida, North Carolina, Texas, among other places, where the math makes more sense, and where leadership isn’t trying to fight private enterprise. Where it is welcome and even applauded.

To be called the greatest city on earth is earned and should not be taken for granted.

Capitalism is at the core of America’s identity, New York City’s dynamism, and everything this city has been able to build. Capitalism built this city: Every tower, every job, every opportunity. Socialism didn’t build New York. It won’t save it. It will sink it.

I’ll close with one more revealing quote that underscores Mamdani’s deep opposition to capitalism, the very system that defines who we are:

“In 2005, 5% of homes purchased in Astoria were bought by investors. In 2019, it was 26%. Rents have gone up by 30% in 10 years. This isn’t greed - it’s the logic of capitalism. We need to pass Good Cause protections, expand social housing & bring more units under tenant control.”- Democratic Candidate for NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani

Voters should think carefully this November. The future of this city depends on it.

Just Sold: A Multi-Tenant Retail Building on a 27,000 SF Lot in Kingsbridge, Bronx| SOLD for $11.5 Million

Address: 205 West 230th Street, Bronx, NY 10463

Neighborhood: Kingsbridge

Building Class: K1

Location: Corner formed by West 230th Street and Godwin Terrace

Lot Dimensions: 155.19' x 306.07' irr.

Lot SF: 27,306 SF

Zoning District: R6/C2-3

Residential Base FAR: 3.00/2.20

Residential UAP FAR: 3.90

Residential Base ZFA: 96,286 ZFA

Residential UAP ZFA: 144,555 ZFA

Sale Price: $11,500,000

Price Per ZFA: $119/ Base ZFA | $80/ UAP ZFA

Note: Development Site Advisors was the sole broker in this transaction representing the seller and identifying the buyer. Closed in a true all-cash transaction.

Financial Market Snapshot:

• Federal Prime Rate: 7.5%
• Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.30%
• United States Effective Federal Funds Rate: 4.33%
• United States Annual Inflation Rate: 2.4%
• US 1-Year Treasury Rate: 4.003%
• US 2-Year Treasury Rate: 3.764%
• US 3-Year Treasury Rate: 3.732%
• US 5-Year Treasury Rate:  3.84%
• US 7-Year Treasury Rate: 4.032%
• US 10-Year Treasury Rate: 4.275%
• Treasury Bill Auction Rates:
• 6-Week Term: 4.420%
• 17-Week Term: 4.195%
• US Bonds:
• 20-Year Bond: 4.942%
• Mortgage Rates:
• 30-Year Fixed Rate: 6.79%
• 15-Year Fixed Rate: 6.02%
• 5-Year ARM: 6.37%
• Ground Up Construction Rates: 8.5%+
• Hard Money Lending Rates: 11%+